SPORTS ADVISORS
TUESDAY, JANUARY 12
COLLEGE BASKETBALL
Ohio State (11-5, 7-9 ATS) at (6) Purdue (14-1, 7-7-1 ATS)
Purdue looks to rebound from its first defeat of the season when it returns to Mackey Arena for a Big Ten battle with the Buckeyes, who have already lost three conference road games.
Ohio State dropped a 73-62 decision at Minnesota on Saturday as a four-point road underdog, falling to 1-3 SU and ATS in conference play with all three defeats coming on the road in blowout fashion (by 11, 9 and 22 points). Throw in a 74-66 non-conference loss at Butler as a five-point ‘dog, and the Buckeyes are winless on the highway this year (0-4 ATS), getting outscored by an average of 13.4 points per game (72.2-58.8).
The Boilermakers tasted defeat for the first time on Saturday, going to Wisconsin and losing 73-66 as a 1½-point road chalk. Purdue actually outshot the 17th-ranked Badgers 47.2 percent to 41.1 percent, but the Boilermakers got killed at the foul line, making 13 of 24 freebies compared with Wisconsin’s 22-for-27 effort from the charity stripe. In jumping out to a 14-0 start to this year, Purdue posted 12 double-digit wins and held all but one opponent (Tennessee) to 65 points or less.
These teams split their regular-season series last year, with Purdue rolling 75-50 as a 9½-point home favorite after losing 80-72 in overtime at Ohio State as a two-point chalk. The Boilermakers got the last laugh, though, with 65-61 victory as a 5½-point favorite in the conference tournament. Not counting tournament play, the home team has won five straight meetings (3-1-1 ATS). The Buckeyes are 13-4-1 ATS in the past 18 series clashes and 7-2 ATS in their last five trips to Purdue. Also, the ‘dog is a on a 3-1-1 ATS roll in this rivalry.
Ohio State brings a 1-7 ATS slump into this game. In addition to that and failing to cash in all four road games, the Buckeyes are 1-5 ATS in their last six after a non-cover, but 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 on Tuesday. Purdue is 6-1-1 ATS in its last eight against winning teams and 5-2 ATS in its last seven after a non-cover.
Ohio State carries “under” trends of 6-1 overall, 12-5 on the highway, 8-2 in conference action and 8-1 after a non-cover. Additionally, Purdue is on “under” stretches of 5-1 after a SU defeat and 4-1 on Tuesday. Finally, the last two meetings between these teams last year stayed low, following a 3-0 “over” surge.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OHIO STATE and UNDER
Texas A&M (12-3, 6-4 ATS) at (13) Kansas State (13-2, 7-3 ATS)
The Aggies take a three-game winning streak into the Fred Bramlage Coliseum looking to become the first team this season to win on Kansas State’s home floor in this clash of Big 12 foes.
Texas A&M tipped off Big 12 play Saturday with a 64-53 win over Nebraska as a seven-point favorite, a triumph that came on the heels of two 25-plus-point blowouts of non-lined teams Northwestern State and North Dakota. The Aggies have played just one true road game this year, and they fell 73-64 at Washington as a 7½-point underdog.
The Wildcats had their 10-game SU winning streak and six-game ATS run snapped in Saturday’s 74-68 loss at Missouri as a five-point road underdog in the conference opener for both teams. It was the first time all season that K-State failed to score at least 70 points and ended a five-game stretch in which it scored at least 85 points and averaged 89.6 ppg. The Wildcats are 9-0 at home this year – with an average final score 83.4-60.9 – and they’ve won 12 in a row at Bramlage Coliseum going back to last year’s nine-point loss to rival Kansas.
The Wildcats and Aggies battled just once last year, with Kansas State prevailing 65-60 as a 3½-point road favorite, improving to 4-2 SU and 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. However, prior to last season, the home team had won seven straight regular-season clashes (5-2 ATS) going back to 2001-02. The ‘dog has covered in the last four matchups, with the last three being small outright upsets.
Since opening the season with four straight spread-covers, Texas A&M has gone 2-4 ATS in lined action. Still, the Aggies are on a slew of positive pointspread streaks, including 17-8 overall, 37-17 on the road, 11-3 in Big 12 play, 14-6 against winning teams and 9-4 after a non-over.
The Wildcats are on pointspread upticks of 6-1 overall, 4-1 at home and 5-1 against winning opponents, but they’re also in ATS ruts of 6-19-2 in Big 12 action, 4-10 on Tuesday, 3-13 after a SU loss and 4-16-1 after a non-cover.
The under has been the play in seven of the last eight meetings in this rivalry, with the last three in a row at K-State staying low. Additionally, Texas A&M is riding low-scoring streaks of 6-2 overall, 9-2-1 on Tuesday and 7-1 against winning teams, while the Wildcats have stayed low in four straight on Tuesday and seven of eight against winning teams. Conversely, the over is 4-1 in the Aggies’ last five conference games and 7-3 in K-State’s last 10 at home.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
(2) Kentucky (16-0, 7-7 ATS) at Florida (11-4, 5-5 ATS)
Now one of just two remaining unbeatens in Division I, the Wildcats face their first SEC road test of the season when they travel to the O’Connell Center in Gainesville to take on Florida.
After a perfect non-conference season, Kentucky came out Saturday a little sluggish in barely knocking off Georgia 76-68, falling way short of cashing as a 20-point home favorite. The Wildcats, who moved up to No. 2 in the rankings behind only undefeated Texas, have now topped 70 points in seven straight games (average of 86.4 ppg), and they’ve done so in 14 of 16 contests this year (only exception came in back-to-back games against North Carolina and UConn). This is just the second true road game for John Calipari’s troops, the first being a 90-73 rout of Indiana as a nine-point favorite.
Florida opened SEC play with Saturday’s 95-87 loss at Vanderbilt, failing to cover as a 5½-point road underdog. The defeat ended the Gators’ three-game winning streak and dropped them to 1-4 ATS in their last five lined contests. Prior to going to Vanderbilt, Billy Donovan’s squad had allowed an average of 56.4 ppg in the previous five contests. In fact, it was just the fourth time all season that an opponent scored more than 61 points against Florida.
The home team is on a 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS roll in this rivalry. Last year, Kentucky won 68-65 but failing to cover as a 4½-point home favorite and Florida prevailed 60-53 as a 5½-point chalk. The Gators are 8-2 SU in the last 10 meetings and 7-2 ATS in the last nine (4-1 ATS last five). They’ve also defeated Kentucky five straight times in Gainesville, cashing in each of the last four.
Kentucky has covered in four of its last five road games going back to last year and it is 5-1 ATS when coming off a non-cover, but it has cashed just once in its last seven SEC contests. Florida is in pointspread slumps of 1-4 overall, 2-5 at home, 2-5 in SEC play, 2-6 on Tuesday, 1-4 against winning teams and 2-7 when coming off a SU defeat.
The over is 6-1 in the Wildcats’ last seven games overall, but the under is 6-2 in their last eight on the road. The Gators are on “under” tears of 10-2 overall, 12-5 against winning teams and 4-0 when coming off either a SU or ATS defeat. Finally, last year’s two meetings stayed under the number.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
NBA
L.A. Lakers (29-8, 16-21 ATS) at San Antonio (22-13, 18-16-1 ATS)
The Lakers and Spurs hook up for the first time this season, with L.A. making the trek to the AT&T Center looking to halt a three-game road losing streak.
Los Angeles is coming off Sunday’s 95-77 rout of the Bucks as a 9½-point home favorite, but that followed a pair of losses at Portland (107-98 as a four-point favorite) and to the Clippers (102-91 as a five-point ‘dog in a game where the Clippers were the designated home team). Throw in a 118-103 loss at Phoenix, and the Lakers are 0-3 SU and ATS in their last three as a visitor.
The Lakers have followed up a five-game stretch in which they averaged 115.8 ppg by scoring just 93 ppg in the last four. Los Angeles was held under 100 points in all four contests after doing so just eight times through the first 33 games.
The Spurs, who cap a four-game home stand tonight before embarking on a four-game road trip, knocked off New Jersey 97-85 on Sunday but came up just short as a 14-point home chalk. San Antonio has followed up a five-game SU and ATS winning streak by splitting its last four contests (1-3 ATS).
The Spurs have scored more than 100 points in five of their last eight, but they’ve really turned things up defensively, holding 12 of 13 opponents under 100 points, including yielding 92 or less in four of the last five games.
The Lakers took two of three from the Spurs last year, cashing in all three games, including twice while visiting San Antonio. Going back to the 2007-08 season and including a playoff series, Los Angeles is on a 7-2 SU and ATS run against the Spurs, cashing in each of the last five games overall and each of the last three trips to the AT&T Center.
Los Angeles, which has been a big money-burner this season, is in ATS ruts of 3-5 overall, 4-9 on the road, 3-8 against Western Conference opponents, 1-5 on Tuesday and 2-5 after a SU victory. San Antonio sports several negative ATS trends as well, including 2-5 on Tuesday, 1-6 against winning teams and 1-10 when hosting a foe that has a winning road record. However, the Spurs are also 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight against the Pacific Division and 4-1-1 ATS in their last six after a non-cover.
The under is on streaks of 6-2 for the Lakers against teams with a winning record, 13-5-1 for the Lakers after an ATS triumph, 6-2 for the Spurs against winning teams, 6-2 in this rivalry and 9-3 when these teams meet in San Antonio. On the flip side, the over is on runs of 7-2 for both teams against Western Conference competition, 5-2 for San Antonio versus the Pacific Division and 13-3-1 for San Antonio on Tuesday.
ATS ADVANTAGE: L.A. LAKERS and UNDER
